Gov. Kathleen Blanco is saying she will seek re-election. U.S. Rep. Bobby Jindal is praying about it. Qualifying for the 2007 race for governor is less than a year away. Candidates must sign up by Sept. 6 for the Oct. 17 election. Most bets are on another Blanco-Jindal rematch. But Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell is raising cash amid speculation that he could position himself as a populist in the vein of Huey Long. Still, many experts think it is Blanco’s race to lose despite the chinks that Hurricane Katrina put in her political armor. Others think Campbell’s presence in the race as a competing Democrat could sweep Republican Jindal into the Governor’s Mansion.

The consensus of political observers interviewed by The Advocate is that Blanco’s future hinges on whether she can put the state on the road to recovery, mend a fractured relationship with black political leaders and heal her battle scars from Katrina.

Jindal, on the other hand, enters the race as a young congressman who escaped the finger-pointing after Katrina, fights on Capitol Hill for the state’s coast, and delivered his own baby this year. He is so strong, those same political observers say, that Blanco may very well be pressured to step aside in favor of another Democratic candidate. There was a push a few months ago for former U.S. Sen. John Breaux to run for governor, but he said he is not interested.

However, Chris John, a Democrat and a former congressman from Lafayette, said he would consider running if Blanco does not seek re-election.
Blanco’s best bet is a fractured field that diverts votes from Jindal, Baton Rouge political consultant Roy Fletcher said.

“If it’s just Jindal and her, turn out the lights. The party’s over,” he said.

New Orleans City Council President Oliver Thomas is hesitant to write off Blanco.  He points out that the governor is about to release billions of dollars to homeowners in the hurricane-affected areas. “The one interesting thing about Kathleen Blanco is people have underestimated her (for) her entire career,” Thomas said.

THE COMEBACK KID
Blanco, 63, was far from a shoo-in in the 2003 governor’s race.  The Acadiana native was a former housewife with the relatively low-profile job of lieutenant governor. Jindal was a Rhodes scholar with the blessing of then-outgoing Gov. Mike Foster.

Then-Attorney General Richard Ieyoub and former U.S. Rep. Buddy Leach fought for the same traditional Democratic strongholds. Democrat and former state Senate President Randy Ewing of Quitman, another major contender who failed to make the runoff, lost moderate voters who opted for Jindal.

In the runoff election, Blanco defeated Jindal 52 percent to 48 percent, making her the first woman governor in state history. She did it by getting a lot of black voters, especially in New Orleans. Hurricane Katrina is likely to change the dynamics in New Orleans, possibly eroding Blanco’s base.
The storm also tarnished the governor’s image. She became somewhat of a scapegoat, depicted in the national media as crumbling under the weight of the colossal catastrophe.

The situation did not improve much after the floodwaters subsided. Blanco struggled to get her recovery initiatives passed during the special legislative sessions that followed the storms. The Black Caucus, which usually includes some of the governor’s staunchest allies, sued her over spending cuts. At another point, black lawmakers walked out of the House chamber after losing the vote on satellite voting for evacuees.

To win, Blanco must solidify her support among black leaders before Campbell makes the deals necessary to capture that base, Shreveport political consultant Elliott Stonecipher said. “This is one mean political dude, far more so than people we generally see,” Stonecipher said, referring to Campbell. “He’s on par with Buddy Leach — without the gentility.”

Ron Nabonne, an attorney and longtime political consultant in New Orleans, said Blanco needs to be concerned about where she stands with black leaders. “Everyone is waiting to see how black elected officials will publicly oppose her,” said Nabonne, who managed Arnie Fielkow’s recent successful campaign for New Orleans City Council.

Rep. Cedric Richmond, the House leader of the Black Caucus, is not ready to forgive and forget when it comes to the “system of chaos” he thinks Blanco has created. He said he might run for governor himself. “I like her as a person,” said Richmond, D-New Orleans. “I think she’s very nice. However, I don’t think we can have a political friendship. I don’t think we’ll ever be on the same page again.”

Not everyone believes Blanco will run again. Others say it would be a mistake to discount her knack for rebounding. Many say her decision will hinge on what she sees in public opinion polls. The Blanco administration is expected to roll out billions of dollars in “Road Home” money for hurricane victims. It is a tossup whether the flood of money will push her up in the polls. “Coach is a very practical man,” Fletcher said, referring to Blanco’s husband, Raymond “Coach” Blanco. “He will explain to her what the (poll) numbers say.”

TRAVELING MAN
The assumption in political circles is that Jindal will run for governor in 2007. For now, the 35-year-old Jindal is being coy. He is a congressman running for re-election on Nov. 7.

Jindal, who moved from Baton Rouge to Kenner after the 2003 race, said in a statement that, at the start of 2007, he and his wife, Supriya, will “discuss where our greatest contribution can be made for Louisiana.”

In the meantime, Jindal is traveling the state, swinging by Alexandria, Shreveport, Winnsboro, Monroe, Bossier City and many other places far from his southeast Louisiana congressional district. His visits typically involve a luncheon, where he meets the local leaders and talks about health care or the hurricanes. His forays into north and southwest Louisiana are “a little bit odd,” observes Lafayette City-Parish President Joey Durel, who, like Jindal, is a Republican. “You have to assume he’s got his eyes on something else.”

In the 2003 governor’s race, Jindal carried the conservative strongholds of Lafayette, East Baton Rouge and Bossier parishes in the runoff. Blanco got the majority of the vote in the rest of Acadiana and, for the most part, north Louisiana.

Jim Brown, a former insurance commissioner and secretary of state, noticed a trend when he visited small towns across the state a year or so ago to push his autobiography. Everywhere Brown went, Jindal had been there or was scheduled to visit. “Jindal never stopped running from the runoff election of three years ago,” Brown said.

THE POPULIST UNDERDOG
At the moment, Campbell appears to be Blanco’s most-serious challenge within her own party. Other prominent Democrats — Ewing, Ieyoub and State Treasurer John Kennedy — said they are not currently planning on running. Stonecipher said Campbell is a populist in the style of the Longs.

Huey Long ran third in the governor’s race of 1924. Four years later, he rode a populist wave into the Governor’s Mansion. Long fashioned himself into a candidate of the people by campaigning in the rural reaches of the state. He promised better roads, better hospitals and better schools.
It wasn’t just promises of a better life that propelled Long into the top political job in the state. Stonecipher believes that the great Mississippi River flood of 1927 flood also swept Long into power. Heavy rains caused the levees to break along the Mississippi River and its tributaries, killing hundreds of people. Calculated dynamiting spared New Orleans but devastated St. Bernard Parish. Long painted the wealthy as parasites, a caricature that resonated with the poor.

Campbell, 59 of Bossier City, also is talking like a champion of the people. His biggest idea is to force oil companies to restore the coast to the condition it was in before they started drilling a century ago. He contends that Blanco and Jindal are too cozy with the oil companies to even consider his idea. Campbell also wants to tax the foreign oil that flows through Louisiana. He thinks that would generate enough revenue to get rid of personal income tax. He has two hurdles to overcome.

First, he has to come up with a dynamo of a definition that makes his complicated idea easily understandable to the average person, Brown said.
“It will cost him a small fortune to explain that message,” he said. He also lacks money. Campbell said he needs at least $3 million to wage an effective campaign. He said he has raised about $100,000 in the past few weeks.

WEALTHY NEWCOMER
State Sen. Walter Boasso, R-Arabi, is a self-made businessman who built a successful corporation before entering politics. He was elected to the Legislature in 2003. As a rookie legislator, Boasso took on pension reform and other issues even before Hurricane Katrina devastated his home and business in St. Bernard Parish. After the hurricanes, he made an emotional plea on the Senate floor for levee board reform. Now he’s touring the state to stump for a constitutional amendment that would consolidate some of the boards.

Fueling a campaign with his personal wealth and passion would not be an unprecedented move for a political ingénue. Mike Foster was not on anyone’s radar when he joined the 1995 governor’s race. He was a two-term state legislator whose grandfather once was governor. But the Fosters were not a political dynasty on par with the Longs or even the Landrieus. Then-U.S. Rep. Cleo Fields, former Gov. Buddy Roemer and now-U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu were the major players.

Foster was a wealthy businessman who painted himself as a populist. Instead of glitzy TV ads, he started with modest newspaper ads. His grassroots campaign attracted Christian conservatives such as Pat Buchanan. He also was able to bankroll his own campaign when the need arose.

Boasso, 46, admits he is flattered by the speculation that he will run. “I’m being asked to run for governor,” he said recently. “I’m very honored that people would think that much of me. It’s going to be the people’s decision.” For now, Boasso said, he is focused on getting the levee-board amendment passed. However, he has given some thought to the qualities it will take to help the state recover from the hurricanes. “Somebody’s got to fix this,” he said.

Fletcher — the consultant behind Foster’s first campaign for governor — thinks Boasso would have an uphill battle to beat Jindal, a known vote-getter. “He’s a long-shot with a good story and a lot of money,” he said. “We didn’t have, in Foster’s year, a governor-in-waiting.” Brown agrees. He said there doesn’t seem to be a niche for Boasso in the upcoming governor’s race. “I don’t think there’s room for him to run as a Republican,” Brown said. “Jindal usurped that position.”

AND ANOTHER
New Orleans businessman John Georges also is giving serious consideration to running. Georges, a 45-year-old Republican, is a heavy campaign  contributor to President George W. Bush. Georges thought about running in 2003. Three years later, his children are older, putting him in the position to seek his first political office, he said. Georges says he could easily raise $5 million. He said it would cost $4 million to build name recognition. “People are looking for a leader, and they’re looking for someone outside politics,” he said. Some doubt Georges is serious about running. After all, Brown said, he didn’t run last time when there was an open field. “Why run against a comeback governor and congressman?” Brown said.

Story originally published in The Advocate